New Education Policy 2020: Welfare Economics Perspective of Policy Design

What a policy is

A policy is a plan of actions toward achieving certain goal of any private or public community. Lending policy of a private sector bank is an example of the former whereas education policy is an example of the latter. In this document ‘policy’ will imply public policy. As an example of public policy the New Education Policy will be referred to here.

Why is at all a public policy required?

A public policy is one of the tools in achieving a number of goals, e.g. mitigating socio economic inequality, towards implementing the Directive Principles of State Policy in the Constitution of India.

What is the theoretical underpinning of a public policy?

(a) Failures and attempts to address facts of life: The theory of public policy originated from the failure of all disciplines of study to answer hard questions of life like (i) why this baby is born on a street when that child is born in a golden bed at the same time, and the consequent endeavours to answer the question (ii) what the fate of the street-born baby would be in terms of being a blessing or curse for the society in future?

(b) Welfare Economics: The discipline of Welfare Economics, a specialized part of Microeconomics tries to answer the latter question with the help of the theories of market failure, externalities and internalization of externalities.

(c) Theory of Consumption: In terms of Microeconomics consumption of food, cloth etc by a baby is financed by the guardian. When the child reaches the adult and starts earning, gradually his income increases over and above consumption. When his guardian becomes old his income falls short of consumption, the grown up child can repay the above finance by taking care of the latter during old age.

(d) Theories of Externalities and Market Failure: An individual’s cost of own consumption is a private cost but the cost of other’s consumption is a social cost. Similarly an individual’s benefit derived from a good purchased by him is a private benefit but if he derives benefit from a good purchased by somebody else, it is a social benefit. The differences between social and private costs and between social and private benefits are called externalities. The excess of the social over the private is called positive externality and the vice versa. The inequalities between private and social costs and between private and social benefits are called market failures. Market here means equality between the cost to be incurred for and the benefit to be enjoyed from an additional unit of consumption of a good or a service. By the common parlance ‘market’ used by laymen means the same because in the market a buyer tries to bargain with seller over the price if the buyer feels that the above cost is more than the above benefit and the seller tries for the reverse by demonstrating that the above benefit is more than the above price. At some point of the bargaining process, both the parties strike the equality between the two.    

(e) Internalization of externalities: Market failure can be corrected by arranging equality between social cost and private cost, e.g. punishing an offence and between social benefit and private benefit, e.g. rewarding an act of bravery. The State facilitates the internalization process by providing public goods like police, defence, judiciary and so on.  

(f) Applications of the Theory of Consumption: Homes run by the governments, trusts and religious institutions provide finance for consumption by poor children or orphans.

(g) Application of Externalities and Market Failure: Free goods and services are out of the purview of Economics discipline. Here ‘good’ will mean a good or service available at a price. Every activity involving a good is called a transaction. There are certain activities that lead to market failure and generate externalities. Expenditure by a government or donation by a private party generates positive externalities while taxation, crime etc generate negative externalities.

 A human being has a body and a character. There are prices of physical organs, bones and blood as informed by crime reporters but there are higher prices of character, talent and other mental faculties computed in Human Resource Management. If a criminal provides for consumption of the street-born uncared child in order to derive future benefits toward criminal profession, that child will grow into a source of negative externalities in future. On the other hand if the government or some trust takes care of the child, the result could be expected to take the form of a responsible citizen, a stream of positive externalities in the society. 

Design of National Education Policy 2020 (NEP)

Economists view education increasingly as central to issues of development like productivity, income distribution, employment, and knowledge as an input to production. They offer varying opinions as to whether education is a public good or private good. Despite the aforesaid differences, education whether private or public, aims to provide the educated with the access to the market with higher purchasing power, addition to aggregate demand, expansion of production and rise in national income. 

There are three new dimensions of the NEP over the National Policy of Education 1986 – (i) the digital dimension, (ii) holistic multi disciplinary dimension and (iii) marketing dimension. It revolves around the public good aspect of education. An economist believes that education as a public good has three objectives – expansion, excellence and inclusion; education as institution should build up human capital and education as an input in the production process should contribute to product development, upgrade and innovation. 

Expansion: The NEP encourages expansion of education across arts, disciplines and languages.

Inclusion: The NEP encourages adult education and discourages coaching centres at school level where the poor or those who do not have purchasing power do not have access. It encourages private institutions to offer subsidized or free education and scholarship.

Excellence: The NEP prescribes scholarships to rural meritorious students.

Human Capital: The NEP prescribes enhanced investments in vocational education and multi disciplinary education. High skilled human capital is supposed to facilitate innovation in businesses.

Input in production process: The NEP encourages marketing of Indian Education as a product for sale to foreign students by prescribing such activities in institutions of higher education. 

Conclusion

Failure of public policies to correct market failure through misuse of public goods has given rise to preference of the capable for the private over the public and generation of demand for commercialized services of public good character, e.g. private education, private health, private security etc.

The NEP terms a teacher to be central to the education process but in the private education industry and corporatized institutions, where the faculties and departments are shaped as profit centres, neither does a teacher stick to one institution for long time nor is there is any job security even if he wants to continue and as such there is drainage of institutional knowledge disrupting the human capital formation process. The reason is given below.

The NEP prescribed non-profit governance of private institutions. Materialization of the same is difficult for efficiency reasons. The measure of efficiency differs across sectors and firms over time. In the discipline of Economics, efficiency in a market economy means every factor of production earns its maximum possible remuneration from its best possible use without any wastage and is free to switch to another employer if the ongoing employment is inefficient. In the discipline of Human Resource Management efficiency means the yield of output to the inputs. Accordingly the HR divisions of the private universities design efficiency measure in the name of performance appraisal. In a command economy or in a mixed economy with a public sector of education neither can a factor switch to another employer or nor can his performance appraisal vary over time because the static measure of efficiency that is obtained during the employment process does not change till the stipulated time of retirement. So there is no motivation of either party for information asymmetry. The sovereign guarantee of tenure of a factor in public sector plays the role of job security during the tenure. However that is a source of moral hazard in the public sector but both moral hazard and information asymmetry exist in a private education industry. The temporary or contractual nature of employment in the monopolistically competitive structure of private education industry with the dynamic nature of efficiency measure generates enough motivation for moral hazard and scope for information asymmetry. The above motivation is reflected in the tendency of a factor to auction itself every moment to the best bidding employer. The above scope is reflected in the uncertain future contingencies. As long as factor movement is allowed free, institutional knowledge and specialization cannot build up for research and innovation.

The future will tell how far the NEP is successful in curbing commercialization of education and how the private institutions fulfils the aims of this policy.

How to Rank Courses on Financial Risk Management

Relevant to the following courses of the PG programme M.Sc. in Quantitative Finance

  • Credit Risk Management
  • Market Risk Management

Financial risk means unsystemic risk e.g. credit risk and systemic risk e.g. market risk.  Generally credit risk management and market risk management are covered in post graduate programmes. A student having learnt management of these two risks can seek employment in commercial banks, investment banks, development banks, development funding institutions, non-bank financial companies, broking houses, corporate group treasuries, regulatory institutions, self regulatory institutions etc.

Ranking of a course is inclusive in ranking of a university and its programmes. Ranking of a university means comparing a degree programme or other programmes like diploma programmes and certificate courses offered by a university with the same or similar programme offered by other universities. Ranking of a programme is by and large correlated with overall ranking of a university.

Ranking is an outcome of rating. Rating is a symbol or a symbolic phrase with an underlying numerical score. The aforesaid numerical score can be an average of several other scores, just like CGPA is the average of the grade points obtained in different subjects but unlike CGPA, which is the simple average in a flat structure, the average score in the case of rating is a weighted average of the scores of several categories e.g. parameters, areas, criteria, pillars, and indicators in a pyramidal structure, where each of these categories has a number of underlying sub-categories and the individual score of a category is again the weighted average of the underlying sub-categories. In the case of rating of universities, first the universities are classified in groups in terms of (a) ownership like government, private sponsor or trust or public-private partnership, (b) source of funds, i.e. whether funded by government, private sponsorship or self financing and (c) the mode of establishment, i.e. whether by a state legislature, by the central legislature/parliament or by a declaration under section 3 of UGC Act as deemed university.  Generally there is a positive correlation between (a) and (b), e.g. a university without a private sponsor has access to grants from the government. These provisions are mentioned in the relevant Act.

There are several ranking agencies in India and abroad. In India there are two categories of such agencies: (a) public and (b) private. Public agencies are (i) NAAC and (ii) NIRF.

(i) National Assessment and Accreditation Council (NAAC) – NAAC is a national accreditation agency established by the Government of India in 1994 as a part of University Grants Commission with a view to taking care of quality and relevance of higher education in India offered by universities, colleges and autonomous institutions. Based on seven criteria and several indicators under each criterion totaling to thirty four in number, it awards grades in the combinations of the letters ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’, something similar to the way the credit rating agencies like Standard and Poor, Moody’s and Fitch rate the sovereigns, firms and the financial securities issued by these entities. Curricula of the courses of the programmes offered by the universities find their places in Criterion I of NAAC grading.

(ii) National Institutional Ranking Framework (NIRF) – NIRF is launched in 2015 in order to upgrade the higher education institutions to world ranking. The ranking originates from scores of five parameters and the metrices under each of these parameters totaling to sixteen. Curricula of the courses of the programmes offered by the universities do not find direct places here.

(b) There are a couple of private agencies ranking Indian universities. The notable among them are

(i) Outlook-icare: It ranks the universities and other higher education institutions  based on total five hundred score consisting of hundred for each of the five parameters where each parameter has two underlying indicators. Curricula of the courses of the programmes offered by the universities do not find direct places here.

(ii) Times Higher Education: It ranks the universities in different countries based on the percentage scores of five areas where each area has underlying multiple performance indicators totaling to thirteen. Curricula of the courses of the programmes offered by the universities do not find direct places here.

(iii) India Today: It covers four areas in the ranking process. The area named ‘Quality of Academic Input’ reflects directly on the curriculum of a course.

(iv) Quacquarelli Symonds (QS): It ranks universities based on reputation and research.  

The parameters/areas and the underlying indicators used in the methodologies of ranking universities by the private agencies seem to be closer to NIRF’s methodology than to NAAC’s. While the curriculum of a university finds place explicitly in the methodology of NAAC, the value of the curriculum reflects on the objectives and outcomes in the methodologies of NIRF and private agencies generally. The objectives of a course are connected to the value of the course embedded in the quality of the teacher in terms of her research, citations and relevance to the industry or contemporary world and mode of delivery, i.e. communication, clarity, quality of study material and doubt clearing. The outcomes appear in the form of the learner’s employability or competitiveness for higher studies.

Hence in line with NIRF, we can design as follows the following rating methodology of the courses on financial risk management as part of the PG programme offered by a school/faculty of a university

  1. Teaching Learning Resources (100%)
  • Teacher /Student ratio (25%)
  • Teacher’s qualification and experience in financial risk and related topics (35%)
  • Library & other academic facilities (40%)
  1. Research on financial risk (100%)
  • Publications on financial risks (45%)
  • Citations (45%)
  • IPR/Patent/software/exel format design (10%)
  1. Course outcome (100%)
  • Student performance in university examination (50%)
  • Student performance in examination/interview for recruitment or higher studies (50%)
  1. Inclusion (100%)
  • Education to non-regular candidates like working executives (25%)
  • Representation of students from other states/countries (25%)
  • Representation of genders in both of teachers and students (25%)
  • Representation of economically and socially weaker students (25%)
  1. Student perception (100%)
  • Syllabus coverage (20%)
  • Class interaction (20%)
  • Clarity of information (20%)
  • Availability of study material (20%)
  • Level of practical exercise (20%)

So we can rate a course out of five hundred points in terms of five parameters and seventeen indicators relevant to the nature of the topics in the course

 

#EconomicsPlus: Covid -19 – Money, No Money or Digital Money

Pertains to the following courses

  • Monetary Economics in M.A. (Public Policy) Programme
  • Financial Institutions and Regulatory Systems in M.Sc. (Quantitative Finance) Programme
  • Financial Institutions and Markets in M.Sc. (Economics) Programme with specialization in Banking and Finance

In the emerging economies COVID19 caused escalation in poverty-incident because of job-loss on the one hand and one other hand accretion of disposable cash coupled with erosion of purchasing power attributed to both of lesser opportunity to spend and lower return on investments caused by suspended real production. This means on the one hand the blue collar workers and small scale entrepreneurs are suffering from crunch in inflow of money and on the other hand a relatively sizeable chunk of workers of gold, white and open collars, and middle and large scale entrepreneurs are finding money less and less useful because of inflated prices of the small size of production of necessities permitted by the governments pari passue with shrunk interest earnings. Here arises the issue of peoples’ faith on money.

Money is a part and parcel of our daily life. It is a medium of exchange/payment, measure of value, store of value and so on. It is also considered as a good to buy and sell in the market but unlike other goods the charter of supplying money is vested with a single or few agents permitted by the monetary authority or government. As a medium of payment money is connected to the price level and as a store of value, money commands a price called interest rate. In the interest of smooth macroeconomic management the monetary authority frames and implements certain policies called monetary policy involving changes in money supply that has repercussion on price levels and changes in certain interest rates that has repercussions on investments and real productive activities and changes in exchange rates between the home currency and the reference currencies.

In a globalized economy money to a layman means generally fiat money backed by the sovereign. The faith of the public on money is largely because of the sovereign charter and the efficacy of the institutional mechanism governing (i) creation, use and channels of flow of money, (ii) balance between inflation and unemployment in the domestic economy and (iii) exchange rates and balance of payments in the external sector. Though the monetary literature has grown out of the contributions starting from the field of political economy since Plato’s time till today by a host of other disciplines including banking, finance and institutional economics, this growth could not save the first word from hyper inflation and the third world from hunger and famines.

Chaos and catastrophes in the regulated monetary system as witnessed in USA and East Asia in last two decades and hyperinflations in government money in Germany in 1923, Greece in 1944, Hungary in 1946, Zimbabwe in 2008 etc portrayed a shade of suspicion about the success of government money as an asset. This suspicion combined with various restrictions imposed by central banks on select activities like gambling, money laundering, tax evasion etc through mandatory KYC (know your customer) or similar norms for banks worldwide gave rise to search for some alternative to government money. The result of the search is the birth of digital currency. Digital currency is an internet-based medium of exchange for goods and services. Such transactions occur on the internet instantaneously and allow borderless transfer of ownership. There is no currency conversion from one nation to another. The digital currency can be defined as entries in a database that can be changed only after certain verified transactions. Money in one’s bank account represents a verified entry in a database of accounts, balances and transactions. Through gradual evolution of vocabularies, the terms ‘digital’, ‘virtual’ and ‘crypto’ are used as synonyms. The terms ‘money’, ‘currency’ and ‘cash’ are also used synonymously in this context. It appeared first in the form of bitcoin in 2008. It has become so popular as medium of exchange that there are online platform for shopping using bitcoin.

The fun of crypto currency is that it does not need a supplier central bank and there is an upper cap on the supply of a crypto currency imposed by technological constraints. As a result, the interest rate will increase as demand will increase but the success of bitcoin bond launched on the Bloomberg platform during this July 2019 is yet to be seen. There are multiple suppliers of private digital money – bitcoin, ethereum, XRP etc are among the popular. Secondly, the technological character of crypto currency is that a unit of crypto currency cannot be spent two times, i.e. the transaction velocity of crypto currency is unity only. Thirdly, inflation of crypto currency cannot be controlled by the conventional monetary policy by targeting interest rate or otherwise in absence of a central bank. Though no government has attached any official status to crypto currency, yet bit coin futures are traded in leading international exchange houses like Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The pandemic is likely to escalate the popularity of crypto currency among those who can access the digital currency market because of public fear of handling cash and coins and visiting banks and ATMs (automatic teller machines) and the opportunity to earn interest through a digital currency market. The same may not be true in an emerging economy because a sizeable population is not financially included nor does everybody financially included possess computer and computer-literacy but launching of crypto currency will surely spell away the opportunities for rent seeking, illegal payments and siphoning away funds targeting the public welfare in a developing economy because a crypto coin can’t be spent more than once. So a monetary authority may experiment launching an official crypto currency without dismantling outright the extant money at the initial stage in the form of medium of exchange and payments only, but not as an investment product. However this measure may widen the gap between the privileged and under-privileged in terms of access to technologically advanced payment systems.

A funny guess is that, if one is not comfortable with sliding USD in the real market as depicted above, then lending USD against any crypto currency like BTC is also not profitable because excess supply of USD will virtually pull down interest rate in this insecure loanable fund market. Acceptance of a crypto currency is backed by certain community’s faith but not any real asset. Be aware of hacking of $400,000 worth XLM coins and $534 million worth NEM coins and beware!

What is the Utility of Studying Microeconomics?

Rituparna Das (Adamas University, India), Saurav Roychoudhury (Capital University, USA)

Pertains to

Economics for Engineers in B.Tech. Programmes
Managerial Economics in MBA Programmes
Microeconomics in B.A./B.Sc Economics Programme
Advanced Microecnomics in M.A./M.Sc. Programme

Microeconomic principles are the building blocks, the base of all other areas of economics and so microeconomics is an important tool in the science of decision-making. It imparts the art of reasoning or finding logic with a rational perspective and cost-benefit analysis for what or why we should or should not do when we make our choices in everyday life. For example, for a married working couple planning for a child, a choice would be between IVF (in vitro fertilization) process and the traditional way. Microeconomics will help them decide between which process to choose by weighing the direct costs (hospitalization and associated costs) and opportunity cost (potential loss of pay) with the IVF process that involves a cost of about a couple of lakhs of rupees but getting the child in a relatively painless way. A relevant application of microeconomics for a prospective student is which profession she should choose out of several alternatives like engineering, medical and business, or relatively more research-oriented alternatives like economics and finance – that is, they might prefer a career that will likely to get them on a track to a high earning specialty. In microeconomic terms prices are always relative and so even high tutorial fees might seem more than manageable when the student sees a career that can help them earn those fees many times over in the future. Microeconomic theories play a major role in designing financial plans by individuals as well as businesses and corporate entities. Numerous transactions incurred in the financial markets every business day are results of microeconomic applications. Broadly the following microeconomic considerations are kept in view before carrying out any transaction – that every rupee we spend or every unit of anything we receive by spending money has some opportunity cost in terms foregoing some other next best thing – the benefit or utility we get after spending money or foregoing something against receipt of money should not be less than the value of money spent. Similarly, microeconomics also looks at externalities – that I need to pay a penalty or bear a cost if my transaction harms others and I should be compensated if another person’s or entity’s transaction harms me. For example, when I smoke amidst my friend circle I harm my non-smoking friends by making them passive smokers and causing them costly tobacco-related disease that will cause physical and financial pain, or when I drain the waste water of my leather factory to the nearest river, I am killing fish which can cause scarcity of fish and driving the price of fish up.  

Noteworthy applications of microeconomics in other fields of direct relevance to our personal and social spheres of life that have fetched noble prizes are in the areas of portfolio selection that applies to personal finance, transaction theory in legal disputes involving two or more parties that is directly relevant to our social life and also its application to non-economic spheres of human behaviour like sociology and criminology. The modern portfolio theory of Harry Markowitz advises us how we can maximize return out of a basket of financial assets subjected to a specific risk or minimize the risk of a portfolio of assets given a return level. The portfolio selection theory of James Tobin inquires into the way the households and businesses use microeconomics principles to choose among various real and financial assets to hold or liabilities to discharge in their portfolios based on the weighted risks and expected rates of return. The transaction theory of Ronald Coase shows the way for the litigants to resolve a legal dispute at a minimum cost. Gary Becker’s research on family studies the economic considerations underlying a marriage or divorce, raising of children by parents and so on. Several distinct areas are born out of microeconomic applications as independent courses in various degree programmes in economics, the familiar ones to name in the Indian context are financial economics, law and economics, managerial economics and business economics. Pari passu with financial economics, economics for engineers, environmental economics, and health economics is fast gaining importance.

Financial economics deals with the basis of an investor’s preference for one asset over another, valuation or pricing of an asset or a portfolio of heterogeneous assets, modelling or analysing the risk of an asset or a portfolio, calculating rate of return on an asset or any engineering project, conducting cost-benefit analysis of the project, calculating cost of capital, comparing the costs of the alternative modes of financing for an asset or a project, valuation of the derivative contracts used in managing the risks of the assets, calculating the risk premium of an asset with respect to a risk free asset, calculating issuer-specific risk, quantifying systematic risk, ranking the nations based on assessment of country risk or sovereign risk, calculating sensitivity of asset returns toward changes in benchmark returns, calculating volatility of returns on assets, calculating provisions against future losses and so on.

The course on law and economics covers economic considerations underlying various transactions in properties, solving property related disputes, drafting contracts, challenging or suing a tort, calculating damages, investigating into the reasons behind a crime and application of the theories of efficiency, disparity, competition, and regulation to choose the most efficient, cost-effective and fair course of action.

There is a growing practice of treating managerial economics and business economics to be same, but such practice till date could not reach a position of unanimity.  Those who do not involve such practice think that managerial economics provides the microeconomic basis of making decisions pertaining to an individual firm or a corporate or business entity whereas business economics focuses on the interrelationships between economic factors influencing a particular business and the economic factors pertaining to the entire business environment.

The bottom line is that microeconomics affects all aspects of our life. Individuals, businesses, and the Government make thousands of big and small decisions each year guided by the principles of microeconomics. Individuals seek to maximize their satisfaction when they go out and shop for anything- choosing a restaurant to eat, buying a phone or choosing an education etc. Businesses set prices and make other decisions based on microeconomics. The price that a consumer will pay depends on the supply of a good, and how much other consumers will pay for it. The Government applies (or should apply) microeconomic principles for public finance to find the most effective way for resource utilization to deliver public goods.

So, microeconomics is essential for students who plan to choose a career in finance, management, law, medicine and engineering need to study microeconomics.

 

A Tribute to the International Day of Yoga: Finance – A Science of Yoga

Pertains to the following courses of the Programme titled M.Sc. in Quantitative Finance offered by the Department of Economics:

  • Financial Management
  • Financial Mathematics
  • Financial Modelling using excel
  • Financial Econometrics
  • Asset Liability Management

In literary sense the word ‘yoga’ means addition, union or integration toward growth of a small volume to a large volume. The sense of addition applies to a tangible object, say, the mature value of a recurring deposit accumulated through a small amount of periodical deposit. The word ‘addition’ is used in tangible or concrete sense while the word ‘integration’ is used in abstract or conceptual sense, say, the discipline of ‘Business Study’ indicating integration of the disciplines of Commerce and Management. On the one hand the word ‘yoga’ is popularly mentioned in the sense of a spiritual activity and on the other hand it is used frequently as an exercise in mathematics. A historically early reference to the connection between yoga as spiritual value and mathematics as a process of attaining spiritual values over a series of rebirths is spelt in Meno by Plato but the Vedas are considered to be the explicit references in this matter, say Rig Veda for geometry, Yajur Veda for the concept of big numbers and Atharva Veda for the concept of zero. The connection of Sufism and Arabs to yoga and mathematics are also relevant here. Yoga in all faiths and communities is considered as a process of a homogenous object or entity becoming larger and larger in size and gradually too large to be far from infinity that encompasses heterogeneous objects and then finally becoming one with the infinity, just like leaves, flowers and fruits of a tree are different objects but they are one with the tree and the tree was embedded in a small seed. Yoga is seen essentially as a process of ascendance from a state which is changeable, finite and temporal limited by time and space to a state infinite and of no-change. The concept of time in the context of a soul traversing from one to another birth is embedded in the dialogues between Plato and as well as in the reincarnation theory of Hinduism. In what follows we shall see how the application of mathematics to yoga over a time period in the secular sense when stripped of religious and spiritual characteristics, forms inter alia the fulcrum of traditional non-Islamic finance literature that is taught and practiced in around two-third of the countries of the word including India and USA.

The discipline of finance revolves around choosing the appropriate time value of money in the form of return on asset and cost of liability in order to maximize the difference between the two over the chosen time period and also to maximize reputation in matter of servicing or discharging the liabilities. Asset means a contract that involves current outflow of cash in lending or investing and future inflow of earnings and a contract of reverse nature is called a liability. Calculating time value of money and formulating strategies to optimize time value of money involves application of higher level of mathematics including integral calculus to the inputs available from various book of accounts internal to a firm and external data on macroeconomic variables and financial markets. The time value of an asset for a number of short periods can be integrated over the continuum of a long period through rolling activities for the purpose of comparison over a single long period in terms of profitability. This financing activity is integration (yoga) of the mathematical value of returns or net return and has underlying economic considerations regarding choice of assets for the purpose of deploying investible or lendable funds and the choice of liabilities for the purpose of raising or procuring funds. A financial product or security is an asset for the investor or lender and a liability for the issuer or borrower. The risk and return profile of a financial security depends on the character of the issuer. An investor can study the character of an issuer with help of the latter’s financial statements, past repayment records and credit rating. Depending on the need of investors and issuers of diverse nature, a number of offshoots of the finance discipline evolved with the titles Security Analysis and Portfolio Management or a slightly different Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, Market Risk Management and Credit Risk Management to serve the interest of the investors and borrowers on the one hand and on the other hand Corporate Finance and Project Finance serve the interests of the issuers or borrowers. The titles of Financial Management, Financial Mathematics, and Financial Markets & Regulatory Systems or a slightly different title Financial Markets & Institutions at the basic level, Financial Modelling using excel at the middle level, and at the advanced level Financial Econometrics and Derivatives serve the purpose of educating both of investors and issuers.

Places of employment as finance professional are the departments or divisions of treasury, international banking, risk management, analytics and asset liability management in banks (e.g. SBI Treasury in UK), development banks (e.g. World Bank and Asian Development Bank), non bank financial companies (e.g. LICI Treasury and ICICI Prudential AMC Risk Management Department ), clearing houses (e.g. CCIL Risk Management Department), broking houses (e.g. HDFC Securities), corporate groups (e.g. Tata Group Treasury in Singapore), regulatory bodies (e.g. Reserve Bank of India), rating agencies (e.g. Fitch and CIBIL), consultancy and advisory firms (e.g. Dun and Bradstreet) and exchange houses (e.g. Singapore Exchange Limited). The Financial Risk Management (FRM) certification by GARP (Global Association of Risk Professional) is mandatory in matter of taking the finance career to the top notch in treasury and risk management.  

Perspectives of Macroeconomics: Backdrop COVID-19

This blog pertains to topics in

Unit 5 of ‘Advance Macroeconomics’ course of M.Sc.(Economics)

Units 1 to 4 of in ‘International Finance’ course of M.Sc. (Economics)

Unit 3 of ‘International Trade’ course of M.Sc. (Economics)

Unit 2 of ‘Institutional Economics’ course of M.Sc. (Economics)

Unit 2 of Ph.D. (Commerce) Discipline Specific Course I of coursework

What is macroeconomics? What are its perspectives? Which questions pertaining to COVID-19 period can or cannot it answer?

Macroeconomics as a course in a degree programme on Economics provides theories, principles and tools to (i) examine the level of standard of living of the populace or nation in terms of income, consumption and savings on aggregate or per capita basis, (ii) design strategies of policy intervention with a view to improving the above standard of living and (iii) develop criteria to compare the nations of the world in terms their wealth or quality of life.  In both of undergraduate and post graduate degree programmes macroeconomics is a compulsory course after microeconomics. The undergraduate level of the course is basic whereas its post graduate level is advanced. There are a number of areas as offshoots that flow from macroeconomics e.g. financial markets, international trade, international finance and institutional economics. Each of these reflects a unique perspective of the course and accordingly the learner obtains a direction toward choice of profession and prospective workplaces. Every perspective reflects a separate dimension and plays the role of a spectacle with a pair of glasses of a unique colour through which the learner looks upon macroeconomics and finds it in that colour and accordingly starts planning her course of actions, i.e. studying and applying and/or researching. Poised in the specific relevant perspective macroeconomics can answer the variety of upcoming queries like why the central bank reduces monetary policy rates, why the State Bank of India reduces deposit rates, why Jio Platforms Limited looks toward the international markets for raising capital or what is the nature of relationship between India and USA during COVID-19 period.

 

Perspective of Financial Markets

The course on financial markets can answer why the State Bank of India reduces deposit rates nowadays. This course focuses on interplay of the milieu of macroeconomic and financial information in decision making regarding choices of avenues and volumes of funds (i) to deploy in terms of acquiring assets through lending and investing, and (ii) to procure or raise through borrowing or creating liabilities through issuing securities and also, on part of the regulator, the choice of the mode of regulation of economic agents in the financial markets, e.g. investors, issuers, brokers, platform providers and investment banks. Investments in financial markets traces from the investment component of the national income identity. The places of making aforesaid decisions are (i) the divisions of analytics, treasury, risk management, asset liability management and regulatory compliance in business conglomerates e.g. Reliance Industries Limited Treasury, banks e.g. HDFC Bank Treasury, non-banking financial companies e.g. Life Insurance Corporation of India Treasury, clearing agencies e.g. Clearing Corporation of India Limited and ancillary companies of research and consultancy e.g. Dun and Bradstreet and rating companies e.g. Credit Information Bureau of India Limited (CIBIL), (ii) the divisions of supervision and research of regulatory institutions e.g. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and (iii) divisions of research in self regulatory bodies e.g. Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). A blend of lessons from the courses on financial markets, econometrics and data science can pave the learner’s way to higher studies or the doorstep of corporate research cells of the prospective workplaces e.g. National Stock Exchange of India Limited. The orientation of the course is toward processing secondary financial and macroeconomic data in lieu of macroeconomic theory.

 

Perspective of International Trade

The International trade course focuses on the bridge between the domestic and the international macroeconomic systems when the countries or nation states of the world are compared on the basis of their gross national products rather than gross domestic prodcuts or simply on the basis of their foreign exchange reserves, which is an important parameter in rating and judging the country’s repaying capacity in the case it goes for international borrowing. It deals with examining the determinants of the prices of exportables, prices of importables and exchange rates and designing the policies of encouraging or discouraging exports and imports, choosing an exchange rate regime and choosing a block or group of the nations for the purpose of smoothly carrying out the activities of exporting and importing and facilitating movement of capital to and fro between home and foreign destinations. Specialization in foreign trade with a blend of knowledge on International Relations can lead the learner to higher studies or employment in research institutes like Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). This blend can explain the nature of relationship between India and USA during the corona pandemic period.

 

Perspective of International Finance

The International Finance course can answer why Jio Platforms Limited looks toward international markets for raising capital. This course focuses on financial operations caused by underlying macroeconomic considerations through the role of exchange rates between home currency and international currencies e.g. US Dollar in determining the volume of net exports i.e. exports minus imports and the role of association of the home country with a block or group of other countries in determining own balance of payments. As a result the International Finance course embraces the topics on international financial markets e.g. currency derivatives and regulatory guidelines on external commercial borrowing. A blend of this course with the courses on International Business, International Banking, Risk Management and Derivatives can place the learner in the international branches, foreign treasuries and risk management divisions of the banks and investment banks and international financial institutions like the World Bank Group and the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited Group. The command over historicity and evolution of the international monetary system would provide add on strength if the learner aims higher studies.

 

Perspective of Institutional Economics

The Institutional Economics course can answer why the RBI reduces the monetary policy rates during the corona pandemic period. This course focuses on rules and norms guiding the behaviour of the public, of which one of the outcomes is macroeconomics.  Every transaction at micro level and the following aggregation at macro level are guided by some rules administered by some group of people or an institution and accepted by the masses. For example any sale of goods is a contract between the buyer and the seller and governed by relevant laws. These laws are enacted by a house of legislators, i.e. a legal institution. Similarly every macroeconomic variable is under the control of some institution, e.g. inflation is under the control of the RBI, i.e. a regulatory institution. So implementation of macroeconomic theories is undertaken by institutions. Institutional economics deals with how macroeconomic behaviour of people or group of people on the one hand and institutions and laws on the hand influence each and as such evolve side by side. One can see that on the one hand regulations shape behaviours of banks and financial institutions but on the other hand some specific behaviour of the latter reflecting moral hazard but without violating the extant regulation give birth to some new regulations, e.g. Basel guidelines. Institutions as topics of study play important roles as financial regulators e.g. Securities and Exchange Board of Indi (SEBI) in the Financial Market course and trading blocs, e.g. European Union-North American Free Trade Agreement (EU-NAFTA) in the International Trade course, whereas legal and regulatory provisions like the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) are important topics in the International Finance course. Specialization in institutional economics combined with a strong hold on History of Economic Thought and Political Economy can lead the learner to policy research, economic journalism and higher studies.

 

Financial Market Education: Backdrop COVID 2019

Pertaining to

  1. Topic: International Financial Markets, in Unit 2 of the course International Finance at M.Sc.(Economics) Programme
  2. Topic: Bond Offering, in Unit 3 of the course Principles of Investment Banking in Banking and Finance specialization at M.Sc.(Economics) Programme
  3. Topic: Risk and Uncertainty, topic 4, in Economics Discipline specific paper of Ph.D. coursework
  4. Topic numbers 3, 4, 5 and 7 of unit 2, in Commerce Discipline specific paper of Ph.D. coursework

Financial Market has two components in terms of investment horizon: money market (short term) and capital market (long term). The capital market has broadly two components in terms of types of securities for investment: debt market and stock market. Each of money market and debt market has two components from issuer view point: corporate and sovereign. In money market the corporate issues are commercial papers and certificates of deposits and the sovereign issues are treasury bills. In debt market, the corporate issues are corporate bonds and debentures and the sovereign issues are the securities issued by the central and state governments.

Education on stock market: As the investors are watching minutely the movements of stock index during COVID 2019 lockdown period, technical analysis is rapidly gaining attention. During the economic downturn, the trained eyes of experienced analysts read the market psychology and discern concentration of demand, if any, that can support the fall of the asset. The need to supplement the education on technical analysis with the education on portfolio management arises here otherwise striking a balance between resistance and support is not a cup of tea of the trader or investor. There are three categories of investors as per risk appetite: risk lover, risk averse and risk neutral. The ability to craft a diversified portfolio with a prospective return commensurate with the investor’s risk appetite and at the same time the ability of reading the movements of the securities and their sensitivity to changes in the market index demand a blend of skills of portfolio management and technical analysis. Apart from these technical skills, the ability to examine and predict the changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals that can affect the sector specific stocks in short run as well as in long run adds to the success in portfolio building. In one line, courses on technical analysis, portfolio management and macroeconomic environment of business are pre-requisites to investing and trading in stock market with profit motive.

Education on debt market: Because of lock down facing major part of the industries, except FMCG, pharmaceuticals, internet service providers, hospital and education industries, most of others are likely to register losses during the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal year. As usual their stocks are expected to look down. Those on the buy side are likely to look at debt in lieu of stocks this time. In India floating rate debt instruments are not popular. The buyers by and large go for fixed rate or fixed income instruments. The debt market in India is not as deep as is the stock market and the education on the debt portfolio management is used to find difficulties in getting a space in the basket of courses that an would-be financial market professional opts for. The importance of fixed income investment as a safe haven amidst stormy financial markets pari passu with economic downturn is discovered through a series of financial institutions’ crises like Orange County, Barings Bank and Long Term Capital Management following which was the birth of Basel Accord in 1998. Hence the inverse relationship between yield and price of a fixed income product is unknown to commoners. Risk lovers may incline toward corporate bonds because they love to burn fingers with risk in exchange for higher return than do the sovereigns offer but other categories bend on gilts. However the risk neutral and the risk averse are not likely to rush after the corporate bonds.  As a result prices of outstanding government securities or G-secs are on the rise. The rise is reflected by steady fall of the benchmark 10 year government security yield during the lock down period and subsequently fixing the cut off yield of the new 10 year G-sec at 5.79% in early May 2020 by the Reserve Bank of India. So education on fixed income portfolio management is a pre-requisite to designing a debt portfolio that balances between risk free instruments as well as high-return risky papers.

Education on Credit Rating and Credit Risk Modelling: If both of domestic stock market and debt market offer gloomy prospects, an investor can opt for hybrid instruments onshore as well as offshore. For this, she needs education on credit rating and credit risk modelling. An investor in the financial market can go for stocks and bonds of rated issues available for trade in exchange houses, there are some hybrid products available in the onshore over the counter markets and available through merchant banks like preference shares and convertible debentures. Some hybrid products are available in the offshore exchange houses like Indian dollar-denominated convertible bonds in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All these are issued by corporate entities. Generally they offer higher returns than do plain vanilla instruments but an investor should scrutinize the issuer’s history and performance, both of which should reflect in credit rating.  So the knowledge on credit rating criteria and methods are prescribed supplements if the investor prefers to judge an issue through the character of the issuer rather than simply comparing its performance with other issues in the same sector and same category. All these ‘do’s and ‘donot’s work well till there is no moral hazard in the principal-agent relationship between rating agencies and their client issuers and there is no case for rating shopping like one in 2008 connected to subprime mortgage bonds in USA and one in 2018 in India connected to ILFS non convertible debentures. In such cases the investor needs to carry out an internal credit rating exercise using credit risk models with a pinch of information economics and accordingly make a conclusion whether to go for a hybrid product.

Suggested Readings

  • Fabbozi, F.(Ed.). Handbook of Finance, Volume I, Wiley & Sons
  • Saunders A and Cornett M, Financial Institutions Management: A Risk Management Approach, McGraw-Hill
  • Hull J, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, Prentice Hall

THE OTHER SIDE OF CORONA: BLESSING ON A PROFIT MONGER

Relevance of the Blog to Curricula: The concepts and applications in this blog pertain TO the topics in the following courses:

  • Programme UG Economics: Course Money Banking and Financial Markets (Code

CEC33102), Unit 2, Topic 2

  • Programme PG Economics: Course Security Analysis and Portfolio Management (Code CEC52116), Unit 4 Topics 1 and 3
  • Programme PhD Economics: Course Advanced Theory of Economics (Code CEC81101), Topic 4
  • Programme PhD Commerce: Course Advanced Finance (Code CCO81101), Module 2, Topics 3 and 6                   

The structure of a financial market rests upon a macroeconomic structure. The performance of a macroeconomic system reflects upon the pace of productive activities. Productive activities come to a halt if the staff and workers are unable to attend offices, factories and outdoor workplaces. As precaution against COVID-19, gathering and assembling are getting prohibited, in an increasing number of regions in the face of lockdown, leaving aside essential goods and services sectors. In the interest of safety senior citizens and children are being quarantined from their families. Out of fear the youth and the middle aged people are falling prey to mutual distrust and maintaining social distances because some of the infected victims are found to have hidden the fact during the incubation period of the virus. In short the supply of labour is diminishing side by side with the publics’ tendency of hoarding daily necessities and consumables because they like to avoid crowds in shops or stores when online vendors are unable to deliver. As a result production has become sluggish and side by side the saving tendency will be stronger and discretionary consumption will go down. Consequently the non-essential goods manufacturing businesses are likely to register losses pari passu with transporters, intermediary goods suppliers and financiers. In a nutshell there is a solid ground that stock indices crash. In these circumstances the investors need to turn to the fixed income market or interest rate market. On the eve of loosing sizeable tax revenues, the governments are not in a position to curtail wages and salaries of the staff, who are unable to attend work because of their compliance with the guidelines circulated by the government themselves on how to keep away from infection.

In the above circumstances the government will be a major borrower in the fund markets and most corporate houses will require much less volume of funds because of suspension of productive activities. Those banks and non-bank entities who are holding surplus cash and unable to lend will be happy to lend to the governments. The terms to maturities of these loans are expected to be longer than otherwise and accordingly the average yield to maturity or cost of capital would look to the higher end without any consideration of risk premium. At the same time, the basic goods producing sector would face augmentation of demand and need short term funds which can’t be expected from the stock market but can be expected from commercial paper market or from banks in the over-the-counter market.

Amidst suspension of work in all manufacturing and large scale industries nationwide, the demand for short term funds on part of essential commodity producers, vendors of softwares and online platform providers associated with education and internet service providers and a few hospitality providers can be catered to by the money market instruments like commercial papers in the case of rated entities or by banks. The selling prices of commercial papers are likely to be low because of expected default and consequent higher than before risk premium. Therefore not only from investors’ and lenders’ viewpoints but also from issuers’ and borrowers’ viewpoints, debt market is likely to serve the purpose of raising funds when the investors are not willing to subscribe to equity instrument because of viral lockdown of manufacturing and other productive activities. However this segment of industry is likely to face a higher than expected short term cost of funds.

Furthermore, the aggregate demand facing the locked-down sector shrinks in size, as a result, the thin demand is cleared by the inventory getting rid of any further production. Consequently demand for funds, working capital loans, project funding and similar everything evaporates as a result of which the price of funds goes down for the locked-down sector. For the sake of asset liability management or for any slowed down activity that need to be completed urgently now if at all long term borrowing is required, the top rated debt security issuers who earlier looked toward offshore currency markets can now take recourse home comfortably but it is difficult to predict who among the two – risk premium and term premium – reinforces the other.

In the other way round the demand for gilt-edged securities this time is expected to soar high but at the same time if supply increases because of the need of the fiscal policy to pull up the economy from recession. As a result it is difficult to say whether their yields consequent upon the market rate of interest are more likely to rise or fall. However this is a bad time for corporate debt market because of expected defaults. Overall the above factors are likely to exert an upward push to the term structure of cost of funds in absence of printing money by the central bank for financing government expenditure against government securities and instead, financing government expenditure through placing these securities with the banking sector. If the central bank prints money, this will push down the interest rate facing the real sector and boost some investment and employment at the cost of inflation. So a trade-off may be required between inflation and unemployment.

This is the time a profiteering dealer of rated securities should have the best buy of the chosen top rated stocks as safe as gilts at low prices on the one hand and on the other hand the best sale of his fixed income portfolio.

Disclaimer: This blog is purely academic in nature, not responsible for loss if any of any trader or investor following the suggestion here.

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